
We have read the headlines. And if our middle market deals depended on them, we'd be sunk. This past May M&A across the board dropped to a record low. According to Thomson Reuters and Freeman and Company, M&A deals last month plunged 63% year-over-year to $892.4 million, leaving May 2009 one of the poorest showing months since stats were introduced in 1998, in which fees fell below a billion.
For the industry as a whole, worldwide M&A deals stood at just $480 billion for the first quarter of 2009, dropping 28% from the year-earlier period.
Middle market deals under $500 million were hit hard, plummeting by 48% to $98 billion, the first quarterly period since 1996 to fall under $100 billion.
Worldwide, banks brought in $2 billion in fees for completed transactions since the beginning of April. This is a 78% drop on the $9 billion banks earned in the second quarter last year.
Europe, so far, has been hardest hit, with deal volume declining to 48% from last year. Asian deals dropped off at 46%. We in the US fared slightly better, with a 33% drop in volume.
Looking at cash on hand, global M&A fees for transactions completed this year stands at $6.7 billion, a 58% decline from a year-ago.
The macro number doesn't look much better for the M&A industry on a monthly basis. Overall, deals complete stands at an average of $56.7 billion a month. This of course does not in any way compare to the high flying days of 2007 when completed deals per month never dipped below $200 billion.
Depending on a dealmaker's perch and outlook, there might be some solace in the fact that syndicated loan fees dropped 64% last month (year-over-year) and debt capital market fees dipped 24%, figures showed. ECM fees, however, jumped 15% year-over-year to $2.20 billion.
If we lived in a vacuum things would be different but the reality is that the amount of debt financing for acquisitions has slowed the deal process for both companies and LBO firms. Thus far, companies have announced $655 billion of transactions this year. Unfortunately, this is a drop of almost 50% over the same period last year.
By dollar amount Morgan Stanley, so far, this year has completed $255 billion worth of mergers. JPMorgan Chase & Co. ranks second for the year thus far with $231.0 billion of deals, according to Bloomberg.
As most dealmakers know the action is taking place in China, India, the Middle East and in parts of Europe. But deals are slower to transact.
If deal making was the auto industry, that would be one thing. As an industry, deal making, however, is not even close to bailout territory. And things have taken a turn for the better. Across the board while the numbers weren't good last month, deal making did in fact turn upwards, as $186bn worth of deals were announced in May, better than the $118bn announced in April.
For the middle market professional, things get even rosier, as many predict the middle market will continue to lead the way in deal making. Why? Because big deals have become fewer in number and will likely do so going forward.
If you are like most dealmakers, and are sanguine about the future, you probably anticipate the latter half of the year to improve. Which is to say, we have likely hit bottom.
Meanwhile, buyout targets have become affordable and battered equities have made companies cheap, which in time will prove to be the silver lining to the current cloud. Strategic buyers, for example, who are acting now, are getting values they wouldn't or couldn't otherwise.
Across the pond, banks from Barclays Capital to Societe Generale--which are aiming for the EU M&A market-- to boutique firms such as Centerview Partners, Moelis & Co and Qatalyst--which are opening London M&A offices--are gearing up for the recovery.
Middle market sectors to watch:
• Construction and manufacturing. Yes, believe it or not. With $29 billion of stimulus spending by the US federal government deal making in this area should swing upwards. Just in the last three months, 164 deals have been announced.
• Health care. With the US Congress and the Obama administration wrestling over the details expect a deal to be cut sometime this year. Therefore, opportunity awaits the ones who read this market well. In the last three months 53 deals have been announced.
• Financial services. Right now, firms big and small on both the private equity and regional bank sides are working to find the right deals as a result of bad mortgages. Trust your colleagues this sector should see significant deals in the coming months. Leading the latest drive, financial services has announced 380 deals in the last three months.
Our sector data comes from Zephus Ltd., producers of the powerful Zephyr database. Readers of the M&A Alerts will want to be on the lookout for coming reports, as we team-up with one of the world's leading sources of M&A data. On a regular basis we will be reporting on global middle market M&A activity.
As we await the final thaw to the credit markets we can choose to look at the numbers with doom and gloom or we can prepare for our own turnaround. |